The world’s biggest and most rapidly expanding market for electric vehicles has seen the price war for EVs in China approach a fever pitch, with the mass market as the new front in the conflict that Tesla started.
The mass-market leader is the Chinese battery and EV titan BYD (BYDDF), but after reducing prices, Tesla (TSLA) has roared into this market, posing a threat to startups like XPeng (XPEV), as well as dozens of domestic firms vying for dominance.
Even high-end EV manufacturers Nio (NIO) and Li Auto (LI) are considering incursions into the mass market in an effort to boost sales with more accessible models and hasten their pursuit of profitability.
The most competitive EV market in the world is expected to intensify, spreading into Europe and the rest of Asia as China exports excess supplies there. For some EV manufacturers, China’s price battle will reduce profit margins, while others may endure greater losses in order to retain sales. Wall Street anticipates a final “survival of the fittest” shakeout, with a few dominant Chinese EV businesses remaining as lesser brands disappear.
Chinese EV Stocks on the Decline
Tesla stock has performed well in 2023, but it has just started to decline as the initial surge in demand brought on by worldwide price reduction swiftly fades. While being far from their early February highs, BYD stock and Li Auto have increased little this year. In 2023, Nio stock and XPeng are declining and are not far from historical or long-term lows.
Other Players in the Fray
As new brands and models flood the mass market, Tesla, the only non-Chinese EV manufacturer to yet to establish a significant footing, runs the risk of losing its hold on China. For foreign manufacturers like General Motors, Ford, Toyota Motor, and Volkswagen, this is also a hold time (VWAGY). The vast majority of young EV customers in China have reacted coolly to their debuts of electric vehicles. Yet, the businesses’ assault on China’s EV market has only begun.
GM intends to release upwards of 15 EV vehicles in China by 2025. Most of those next-generation, Ultium-branded EVs are probably going to target the mass market, which will be extremely active in 2022.
The majority of the growth and the bulk of the competition started to really accelerate as the China EV market increased, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu. “The issue is that when competition increased, the mass market just didn’t grow quickly enough to keep up.” BYD destroyed everyone present.”
Tesla Price Drops Start EV Pricing War in China
In light of the latest Tesla price reduction, the rivalry in the mass market has gotten even more fierce.
After already lowering prices in October, Tesla dropped the price of the Model 3 and Model Y by 6% to 13.5% in China at the beginning of January. Within ten days, XPeng took action by lowering EV pricing by 10%–13%; a number of other companies soon followed. Early in February, Nio slashed some prices, and towards the end of the month and again at the beginning of March, even BYD joined the price-cutting bandwagon. Ford and Toyota are two foreign automakers whose EV prices have been significantly reduced and given considerable incentives.
The pressure on EVs has increased as automakers have been lowering the prices of conventional gas-burning automobiles.
Assessment Of China’s Mass EV Market
Low-cost electric vehicles in China that cost less than 100,000 renminbi (RMB), or around $15,000, are already heavily electrified. Popular “little city cars” like the GM-Wuling Hongguang EV start at just $5,000.
The premium and luxury car sector, which is dominated by Nio, Li Auto, Audi, BMW (BMWYY), and Mercedes-Benz (DDAIF), has been reluctant to electrify. These vehicles cost more than 300,000 RMB ($44,000).
Nonetheless, EVs and plug-ins significantly increased their market share in the 100,000–300,000 RMB segment last year.
Yu predicts that the 6.5 million “new energy vehicles” (NEVs) sold in 2022 will fall at least 40% into the mass market. All-electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell cars are examples of NEVs.
More models that are more reasonably priced are on the way, which will likely prolong the China EV price war.
A surge of brand-new EV introductions is anticipated at the Shanghai Motor Show in April.
It will be difficult to distinguish out when so many new models are released by these EV manufacturers and others amid high overall output. Since its launch in late 2022, sales of the XPeng G9 SUV have been dismal. In the upcoming year, a lot of EV cars and crossovers can experience the same problem. The alternative, though, is to continue offering steep discounts on aged vehicles.
Demand vs. China’s EV Sales Plans
Even with significant exports, that gain in NEV would almost cover the entire predicted increase for this year. In addition, production will be ramped up by Li Auto, Nio, GM, Toyota, and many more companies.
The demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in China will lag far behind production in 2023, the country’s volume and production capacity are expected to surge. A China EV price war is now taking place and is anticipated to worsen due to the need to shift metal.
Increasing exports could help BYD and other Chinese entrepreneurs make up for a slowdown at home. They are expanding into markets in Europe and even abroad.